Region AA/A Predictions

[Bearhugger]

Upon preliminary review, the following is what you can put into your AA/A corn cob pipe and smoke this 2016/2017 season:

Region 1: Hosting Fairmont Senior is expected to return five wrestlers from last season's state tournament team. Six are listed but one gentleman has moved with his family to another jurisdiction. Same region but different school. If you want to see a team title scrap, then this is the region to attend. I am going to give East Fairmont a slight edge, but they cannot slip. This is AA/A's toughest region. 199 points (champion = 16, Runner up = 12, etc) due back. 64 returning state place winners and qualifiers due back. 17 schools. 14 weight classes x 4 state tournament spots = 56 wrestlers going to Huntington.

56 state spots - 64 returning state qualifiers = MINUS 8! We got eight kids who qualified last season that have zero chance this season. Watch the results for the Winner's Choice and the WSAZ. Make notes of the AA/A kids who fail to qualify but hold wins over AAA state qualifiers.

Region 2: We have two returning state tournament wrestlers to help Bridgeport set up for the region 2 tournament. Like AAA, region 2 is the weakest region in AA/A. 71 points (champion = 16, Runner up = 12, etc) due back. 56 state spots - 30 returning state wrestlers = 26 opportunities for new wrestlers.

STOP RIGHT HERE

We already know we got eight 2016 qualifiers in region 1 that cannot qualify. We got 26 spots in region 2 for the novice team. By default, the AA/A state tournament will not have the best wrestlers in the state being given a chance to wrestle. WE BETTER BE LOOKING FOR A NEW SYSTEM.

BACK TO REGION 2 NOW

Roane County is a newcomer to region 2 and I predict their arrival will shake up the I-79 club. When you have a team filled with Valedictorians, Salutatorians and rocket scientists, you have to be the favorite to win the region. Roane came out of no where and took second place to the Colossal Clan of the Coalfields in last season's state tournament. They simply "out thought" the remaining competition. Brains over brawn. Roane will be the region 2 champions. Pardon the pun, but the Valedictorians are going to take region 2 to school.

Region 3: Independence returns 11 wrestlers from last season's juggernaut. If the electricity and weather cooperates, they will also be hosting the regional tournament. Region 1 is a bad deal. Region 3 is another kind of bad news. First, this region has 168 points (champion = 16, Runner up = 12, etc) due back. 100 of these points belong to the reigning and defending three time AA/A state champions. I am seeking a shirt that says "NIIIICE" to expand my wardrobe this February. The good news is only 68 of these points belong to the other 16 schools. The fight here is for second place. Now for more bad news. This region has 56 state spots like all of the other regions. This region also has 56 wrestlers due back from last season's state tournament. 56-56 = 0. No free rides.

Region 4: Calhoun returns 5 wrestlers who will enjoy a home field advantage during the regional tournament. This region is on the weaker side as compared to region 1 and region 3. 84 points are due back. 32 of these points belong to the returning state champions of new comer Point Pleasant. This region also only returns 29 wrestlers from last season's state tournament. 56 spots - 29 = 27 opportunities. Like region 2, you guys have a great recruiting tool here. Join the team, got a good chance to go to Huntington, room and board is covered. I predict Calhoun will be your regional champions. However, I hear Point Pleasant has a bunch of young guns loading up. If a bunch of them have hit 9th grade, then things could get more interesting.

Summary:

The math tells the horror story.
Region 1: 56 - 64 = -8
Region 2: 56 - 30 = 26
Region 3: 56 - 56 = 0
Region 4: 56 - 29 = 27

Something looks a little out of balance.