Campion wrote:There has been a whole lot of discussion on seeding wrestlers and specifically, how it can affect the Finals. Soooo, I thought I would look at this years WSAZ results… it is only one tournament and therefore only one data point but I found it pretty interesting. I had a minor in statistics to go along with my major in accounting.
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I love to geek out on data and numbers…
The Finalists in the 14 weight classes comprised of:
11 #1 Seeds
7 #2 Seeds
5 #3 Seeds
1 #4 Seed
1 #5 Seed
1 #6 Seed
1 #11 Seed
1 Unseeded
28 total
The finals consisted of:
#1 vs #2 6 times
#1 vs #3 4 times
#3 vs #4 1 time
#1 vs #6 1 time
#2 vs #U 1 time
#11 vs # 5 1 time
14 Championship Final Matches
This is just data. Use it as you wish
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1. This tells me that the seeding was pretty well spot on. #1 vs #2 @ 6 occurences = 6/14 = 42.86%
#1 vs #3 @ 4 occurences = 4/14 = 28.57%
42.86% + 28.57% = 71.43% 71.43% of the seeding data predicted the finals before the first match happened.
2. Usually the difference between the #2 and #3 seed is minimal. They always get to settle the difference in the semifinals unless there is an upset.
3. The other 4 occurences are outliers. This seed vs seed situation only happened once.
4. The WSAZ seeding crieria is not friendly toward Freshmen. Returning State Champion/Placer and Returning WSAZ Champion/Placer do not work for freshman. The #1 vs #6 was Kehler vs Bentley. Kehler is of course a Freshman.
5. At 106, we had a kid from out of state make the finals. His seed was low, we probably didn't have good enough seeding information on him. He also slammed the #1 seed and hurt him. If we are going to slam and hurt the #1 seed, then the #1 seed might not ever make the finals. Thus, data gets skewed.
6. In another weight class, we had a #1 seed walk off the mat and quit the tournament. Definitely an outlier. I have never seen that before.
7. At 138 the #1 seed got hurt and injury defaulted out.
The WSAZ is by far a bigger and more dynamic tournament than the state tournament. Your analysis supports seeding the state tournament versus not.
Great job!!!
Holy smokes. Braxton Amos works out with a landmine now!!!!!!